What does Daiwa Capital Markets forecast for Japan’s Q4 GDP growth? Daiwa anticipates a modest growth of 0.2% quarter-over-quarter in Q4, despite potential drags from private consumption, marking a recovery from the contraction experienced in Q3.
As Japan returns from a national holiday, the spotlight turns to the country’s economic pulse, with the first estimate of Q4 gross domestic product (GDP) eagerly awaited. Daiwa Capital Markets has set the stage for the upcoming release, forecasting a pivot from contraction to growth, albeit a modest one, despite challenges in private consumption.
Following a quarter marked by surprise contraction, Japan’s economy is poised for a closer examination with the impending GDP announcement scheduled for Wednesday evening. The forecasted 0.2% quarter-over-quarter rise signals cautious optimism from Daiwa Capital Markets, suggesting a rebound from the previous quarter’s 0.7% downturn.
The narrative of recovery will be further colored by additional macroeconomic data slated for release. December’s industrial production and tertiary activity figures will offer a more granular look at Japan’s economic engine and its traction as the year came to a close.
Daiwa’s projections are not just hopeful estimates; they are grounded in preliminary reports. Industrial output, in particular, is expected to align with an initial 1.8% month-over-month growth, culminating in a 1.4% increase on a three-month rolling basis for Q4. Such figures could indicate an industrious end to the year for the nation’s factories and workshops.
Conversely, the tertiary sector, which encompasses a broad swathe of service activities, tells a slightly different story. While a 0.3% month-over-month increase for December is anticipated, this uptick may not be enough to offset a 0.8% dip over the quarter, underscoring a more nuanced recovery narrative.
Additionally, the goods producer price index (PPI) for January is on the docket, providing an early-year temperature check on the manufacturing sector’s pricing power. This release, anticipated on Monday evening, will offer vital clues into the inflationary landscape as Japan’s economy continues to navigate global economic headwinds.
As investors and policy makers alike parse through these forthcoming data points, the broader picture of Japan’s economic resilience and prospective growth will come into sharper focus. This suite of macroeconomic indicators will not only benchmark the nation’s recent performance but also set expectations for the journey ahead.
Japan’s economic discourse is set to be enriched with fresh insights as a series of macroeconomic data is unveiled. With Daiwa Capital Markets’ projections suggesting a measured stride forward, the world’s third-largest economy may signify a steadfast, if cautious, march towards sustained recovery.
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