With obesity rates climbing globally, the battle of the bulge is on, and pharmaceutical titan Eli Lilly is making significant strides with its weight loss drug, Tripeptide. But what is the current market trajectory for this drug, and what can investors expect moving forward? BMO Capital Markets projects that Eli Lilly’s Tripeptide will generate $12.78 billion in revenue for the fiscal year 2024, highlighting a robust market uptake.
Eli Lilly And Company’s innovative approach to tackling weight management issues is gaining traction, as evidenced by the expanding market share of its drug, Tripeptide. Analysts from BMO Capital Markets closely monitor the drug’s performance by tracking weekly prescription data, underscoring its growing influence in the treatment landscape.
Tripeptide encompasses two major products: Mounjaro, primarily for diabetes management, which saw its total prescriptions (TRx) rise by 5.4% week-over-week; and Zepbound, tailored towards weight loss, which experienced an impressive 11.8% week-over-week increase in TRx. This growth is propelling the incretin market forward, painting a positive picture for Eli Lilly’s portfolio.
The demand for Mounjaro is so strong that it has been flagged on the FDA shortage list for certain dosages into March 2024, indicating supply challenges due to its popularity. Despite this, the prescription numbers continue to show significant growth, with the latest figures reflecting over 313,000 weekly TRx for Mounjaro.
The commercial strategy for these drugs includes a paid $25 copay card for prescriptions, marking the end of a free access program. This shift has not dampened the uptake, with new prescriptions (NRx) for Mounjaro witnessing a 4.6% week-over-week increase.
Additionally, the broader incretin market, which includes other diabetes and weight loss medications, grew by 3.3% week-over-week, suggesting a continued reliance on these therapeutic options. Notably, Mounjaro’s growth outpaced the adjusted first-year post-approval growth rate of its competitor, Ozempic, although recent months have seen the gap between them narrowing.
In response to this positive momentum, BMO Capital has adjusted its price target for Eli Lilly’s shares from $710 to $865, indicating a bullish stance on the company’s financial prospects. Even as the last check on Monday showed a slight dip in Eli Lilly’s shares, the overall trajectory for the company and its innovative treatments appears to be on an upward swing.
The increasin demand for Eli Lilly’s diabetes and weight loss medications points to a promising fiscal year for the pharmaceutical giant, as both healthcare providers and patients increasingly opt for Tripeptide treatments. With BMO Capital Markets’ forecast of multi-billion dollar revenues and a market that continues to grow, Eli Lilly’s role in transforming the treatment of chronic weight management is becoming ever more central. As the healthcare sector evolves and prioritizes effective weight loss interventions, Eli Lilly’s Tripeptide stands as a compelling example of innovation meeting market needs.
What’s your take on this? Let’s know about your thoughts in the comments below!